Modeling SARS-CoV-2 antibody seroprevalence and its determinants in Ghana: A nationally representative cross-sectional survey.

Estimates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission rates have significant public health policy implications since they shed light on the severity of illness in various groups and aid in strategic deployment of diagnostics, treatment and vaccination. Population-based investigations have not been conducted in Ghana to identify the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2. We conducted an age stratified nationally representative household study to determine the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 and identify risk factors between February and December 2021. Study participants, 5 years and older regardless of prior or current infection COVID-19 infection from across Ghana were included in the study. Data on sociodemographic characteristics, contact with an individual with COVID-19-related symptoms, history of COVID-19-related illness, and adherence to infection prevention measures were collected. Serum obtained was tested for total antibodies with the WANTAI ELISA kit. The presence of antibodies against SAR-COV-2 was detected in 3,476 of 5,348 participants, indicating a seroprevalence of 67.10% (95% CI: 63.71-66.26). Males had lower seroprevalence (65.8% [95% CI: 63.5-68.04]) than females (68.4% [95% CI: 66.10-69.92]). Seroprevalence was lowest in >20 years (64.8% [95% CI: 62.36-67.19]) and highest among young adults; 20-39 years (71.1% [95% CI 68.83,73.39]). Seropositivity was associated with education, employment status and geographic location. Vaccination status in the study population was 10%. Exposure is more likely in urban than rural areas thus infection prevention protocols must be encouraged and maintained. Also, promoting vaccination in target groups and in rural areas is necessary to curb transmission of the virus.

Achieving global mortality reduction targets and universal health coverage: The impact of COVID-19.

Wenhui Mao and coauthors discuss possible implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for health aspirations in low- and middle-income countries.

Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 infection dynamics in Ghana: Impact evaluation of integrated government and individual level interventions.

The raging COVID-19 pandemic is arguably the most important threat to global health presently. Although there Although there is currently a a a vaccine, preventive measures have been proposed to reduce the spread of infection but the efficacy of these interventions, and their likely impact on the number of COVID-19 infections is unknown. In this study, we proposed the SEIQHRS model (susceptible-exposed-infectious-quarantine-hospitalized-recovered-susceptible) model that predicts the trajectory of the epidemic to help plan an effective control strategy for COVID-19 in Ghana. We provided a short-term forecast of the early phase of the epidemic trajectory in Ghana using the generalized growth model. We estimated the effective basic Reproductive number Re in real-time using three different estimation procedures and simulated worse case epidemic scenarios and the impact of integrated individual and government interventions on the epidemic in the long term using compartmental models. The maximum likelihood estimates of Re and the corresponding 95% confidence interval was 2.04 [95% CI: 1.82-2.27; 12th March-7th April 2020]. The Re estimate using the exponential growth method was 2.11 [95% CI: 2.00-2.24] within the same period. The Re estimate using time-dependent (TD) method showed a gradual decline of the Effective Reproductive Number since March 12, 2020 when the first 2 index cases were recorded but the rate of transmission remains high (TD: Re = 2.52; 95% CI: [1.87-3.49]). The current estimate of Re based on the TD method is 1.74 [95% CI: 1.41-2.10; (13th May 2020)] but with comprehensive integrated government and individual level interventions, the Re could reduce to 0.5 which is an indication of the epidemic dying out in the general population. Our results showed that enhanced government and individual-level interventions and the intensity of media coverage could have a substantial effect on suppressing transmission of new COVID-19 cases and reduced death rates in Ghana until such a time that a potent vaccine or drug is discovered.